Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.008931 0.010087 0.011337 0.012790 0.014432 0.016231 0.018354
2025-11-30 0.007219 0.008839 0.010737 0.013129 0.016063 0.019550 0.024015
2025-12-07 0.005944 0.007690 0.009852 0.012728 0.016461 0.021153 0.027510
2025-12-14 0.005120 0.006929 0.009270 0.012530 0.016960 0.022788 0.031063
2025-12-21 0.004433 0.006236 0.008663 0.012175 0.017143 0.023943 0.033997
2025-12-28 0.004131 0.006018 0.008647 0.012590 0.018372 0.026575 0.039157
2026-01-04 0.003827 0.005755 0.008530 0.012826 0.019336 0.028880 0.044021
2026-01-11 0.003585 0.005553 0.008469 0.013121 0.020389 0.031375 0.049355
2026-01-18 0.003280 0.005221 0.008177 0.013024 0.020818 0.032935 0.053356
2026-01-25 0.003033 0.004954 0.007957 0.013010 0.021356 0.034685 0.057776
2026-02-01 0.002774 0.004642 0.007634 0.012796 0.021539 0.035861 0.061327
2026-02-08 0.002603 0.004459 0.007501 0.012874 0.022202 0.037857 0.066403
2026-02-15 0.002403 0.004213 0.007249 0.012742 0.022510 0.039309 0.070718
2026-02-22 0.002297 0.004120 0.007249 0.013043 0.023598 0.042192 0.077831
2026-03-01 0.002088 0.003827 0.006876 0.012647 0.023399 0.042773 0.080785
2026-03-08 0.001932 0.003615 0.006627 0.012450 0.023539 0.043963 0.084955
2026-03-15 0.001769 0.003375 0.006309 0.012097 0.023354 0.044526 0.087956
2026-03-22 0.001723 0.003354 0.006393 0.012510 0.024658 0.047994 0.096918
2026-03-29 0.001657 0.003288 0.006386 0.012743 0.025629 0.050889 0.104973
2026-04-05 0.001603 0.003241 0.006408 0.013037 0.026738 0.054135 0.114015
2026-04-12 0.001508 0.003104 0.006246 0.012941 0.027045 0.055787 0.119860
2026-04-19 0.001430 0.002994 0.006128 0.012927 0.027516 0.057805 0.126647
2026-04-26 0.001337 0.002847 0.005923 0.012714 0.027547 0.058902 0.131511